A take a look at the provision/demand dynamic for Manhattan and Brooklyn leases means that rents are going up.

Regardless of worries about oversupply and decrease demand within the business sector, the other dynamic seems to be going down within the residential sector. The year-over-year change within the variety of new rental listings is beginning to fall because the market heads into the sometimes busy summer time.

Whereas the times of 30% and better lease will increase are doubtless up to now, with present asking rents already approaching their highs, it won’t take an enormous transfer to push previous these highs into report territory.

As an illustration, as seen above, the median asking lease in Manhattan is at the moment solely $50 beneath the record-high, set in the course of the summer time of 2022. Even the slightest little bit of renter competitors will propel rents larger. Trying on the chart beneath, exhibiting the declining variety of new rental listings in Manhattan, it’s clear that issues are about to get fascinating.

Brooklyn, too, is experiencing most of the identical points, albeit not as acutely as Manhattan. As seen beneath, the present median asking lease in Brooklyn is $3,600, 5% beneath the report excessive set final summer time.

Nevertheless, like Manhattan, the extent of latest rental listings is dropping off.

Taken collectively, an uptick in renter demand in Brooklyn might simply energy asking rents to new highs.

Certainly, even breaking down the information into neighborhoods reveals that every one areas in Manhattan and Brooklyn stay below stress.

Final spring, I wrote about how rents sharply elevated on a share foundation as a result of pandemic’s whipsaw impact. At the moment, the speak was concerning the surge in rents, which, when considered towards pre-pandemic measures, had been up lower than 10%. Now, nonetheless, the dialogue isn’t essentially concerning the rise in rents, however moderately the extent of lease. In different phrases, will rents ever go down once more?

Not anytime quickly, if the decrease quantity of provide has something to say. The next chart appears to be like at how the month-to-month rental provide for 2023 in Manhattan (blue) and Brooklyn (crimson) is doing this 12 months in comparison with the common for every month in earlier years (2019-2022). The comparability reveals a solidly damaging pattern that means renters right now are coming into a really landlord-friendly setting. Trying again to the provision/demand dynamics charts earlier, it may be seen that rents are inclined to fall considerably solely after a notable improve in provide. That’s definitely not the case right now in both Manhattan or Brooklyn.

With tight provide, renters will probably be pressured to compete to signal leases. Which means asking rents ought to be seen extra as a information than a objective. In actuality, a superbly succesful house for lease in a superbly regular neighborhood asking $3,500 per thirty days will doubtless be swarmed with potential tenants. On this scenario, the ultimate lease might strategy $4,000 as contributors weigh their choices for not going larger than the subsequent particular person.

In brief, because the Manhattan and Brooklyn rental markets head into the busy summer time, all indicators level to larger rents within the months to come back. With tomorrow’s rents doubtless larger than right now’s, potential tenants needing to signal leases within the subsequent few months would do nicely to research their native market and weigh whether or not paying a premium right now to safe an house is perhaps worthwhile, moderately than probably paying much more in a few months. Alternatively, it is perhaps price comparison-shopping the gross sales market over the summer time, when it’s sometimes quieter, to see if it is perhaps time to purchase.