Rising inflation in France and Spain fuels fears of more ECB rate increases

Inflation rebounded in France and Spain in February, sending European governments’ borrowing prices up as doubts elevated over how rapidly the European Central Financial institution will cease elevating rates of interest.

French client costs rose 7.2 per cent within the 12 months to February, pushed to the very best charge for the reason that euro was launched in 1999 by quicker will increase in meals and providers costs. Economists polled by Reuters had anticipated French inflation to stagnate at January’s 7 per cent stage.

Spanish client worth progress in February accelerated to six.1 per cent, up from 5.9 per cent in January and above economists’ expectations for a fall to five.5 per cent, regardless of the federal government slicing meals taxes in January.

European authorities bond costs fell in response on Tuesday, sending the yield on Germany’s rate-sensitive two-year bond up 0.08 proportion factors to three.15 per cent, its highest stage for the reason that 2008 monetary disaster.

The figures recommend eurozone inflation might show extra persistent than hoped, forward of the publication of February worth progress knowledge for the bloc on Thursday, which economists count on to point out a slowdown to eight.1 per cent, from 8.6 per cent in January.

“There are clear upside dangers for euro inflation in February,” mentioned Jörg Krämer, chief economist at German lender Commerzbank.

Sharp drops in wholesale vitality costs after a gentle winter and diminished gas consumption have helped eurozone inflation to fall quickly from its October report of 10.6 per cent. Nevertheless, it’s unclear how rapidly worth progress will gradual to the ECB’s 2 per cent goal.

The ECB has dedicated to an extra half proportion level improve in its deposit charge at its assembly on March 16. That may take the benchmark charge to three per cent, up from minus 0.5 per cent final July, and swap markets are pricing in additional will increase to simply under 4 per cent by the tip of the 12 months.

ECB chief economist Philip Lane mentioned on Tuesday there was nonetheless a powerful case for one more half proportion level charge rise in March despite the fact that “there’s important proof that financial coverage is kicking in” and forward-looking indicators present worth pressures cooling.

“We’re all signed as much as the criterion that enough progress in underlying inflation is necessary,” Lane advised Reuters, suggesting the ECB might want to see slowing worth progress in items and providers in addition to vitality and meals earlier than it stops elevating charges. Even then, he mentioned it could be “fairly a long-lasting interval, a good variety of quarters” earlier than it reduce charges.

French inflation was primarily pushed up by quicker progress in meals and providers costs, whereas vitality inflation fell regardless of a 15 per cent rise within the regulated electrical energy tariff this 12 months. The nation’s core inflation charge, which incorporates processed meals, rose from 5.6 per cent to five.8 per cent. The month-on-month progress in French client costs accelerated to 0.9 per cent, up from 0.4 per cent in January.

Melanie Debono, an economist at analysis group Pantheon Macroeconomics, mentioned larger Spanish inflation was “stunning” after Madrid launched a €10bn package deal of non permanent tax cuts on staples, together with bread, pasta, dairy merchandise, fruit and greens.

Luis Planas, Spain’s agriculture minister, mentioned he noticed indicators that meals costs would begin falling earlier than too lengthy. “We’re taking a look at all the prices that affect meals manufacturing and we’re seeing that these prices are progressively happening.”

The federal government has urged members starting from farmers to supermarkets to behave “responsibly” by passing financial savings on to shoppers.

A measure of underlying Spanish inflation, which excludes vitality and contemporary meals, rose 0.7 per cent month on month and hit a report excessive of seven.7 per cent within the 12 months to February.

“The prospect that the eurozone figures are available even larger than our above-consensus forecast on Thursday and, in flip, of a 50 basis-point ECB charge hike in Could, is rising,” Debono added.

Extra reporting by Barney Jopson in Madrid

Back To Top