The commerce deficit widened in February as export volumes declined to greater than 9 per cent beneath the 2019 pre-pandemic common.

Exports fell to a better extent than imports, pushing the deficit to £4.8 billion in February, up from £3.5 billion in January, based on figures printed by the Workplace for Nationwide Statistics. The common deficit within the 2010s was £2.8 billion.

Whereas excessive gas costs are nonetheless the primary driver of the shortfall, the broader commerce deficit in items additionally elevated, with Britain following an reverse pattern to its “superior” economic system friends after Brexit. Actual items exports, excluding so-called erratics, had been 12.2 per cent beneath their 2018 stage within the UK however had been 3.9 per cent larger on common throughout the nation’s closest rivals, figures from the Netherlands’ statistics workplace present.

The ONS estimates that the injury from Brexit is more likely to have been even bigger than the commerce figures counsel as a result of adjustments in its knowledge assortment strategies have boosted current commerce knowledge relative to how the numbers would have been measured earlier than 2022.

The commerce in fuels deficit rose to £4.3 billion in February, up from £4 billion in January, in contrast with a mean of £3.4 billion over the earlier two years. Though the UK exports gasoline, the worth of that is dwarfed by the worth of gasoline imports, that means that the surge in pure gasoline costs for the reason that pandemic has considerably widened the deficit.

Nevertheless, some forecasters count on a narrowing of the commerce deficit throughout this yr as gasoline costs proceed to fall. Gabriella Dickens, at Pantheon Macroeconomics, the consultancy, mentioned: “The underlying commerce deficit seems set to slender this yr, partly because of the current sharp drop in wholesale gasoline costs. Futures costs counsel the month-to-month commerce deficit in pure gasoline can be solely round £1 billion larger than regular within the second half of the yr.”

The commerce deficit with the European Union can be more likely to decline, on condition that the outlook for the British economic system is extra gloomy than that on the Continent, which might be excellent news for exports, Dickens mentioned.

However, Brexit would maintain exports subdued as UK exporters wrestle with red-tape and extra checks, she added. “We expect the commerce deficit will slender to about £65 billion in 2023, in contrast with £86.6 billion in 2022, however will stay effectively above 2021’s £28 billion,” she mentioned.