Utah’s Housing Market Is Looking Iffy In 2023

With housing markets throughout america thrown into an odd limbo because of rising rates of interest, dampening demand, however sticky unaffordability, it’s necessary to attempt to determine what precisely is occurring on-the-ground. Whereas in previous articles we centered on metropolis housing markets, such because the Denver housing market in 2023, right here we’re specializing in the Utah housing market, each on the state degree and the housing markets of its 20 largest cities.

Learn on to learn how the Utah housing market is shaping up in 2023.

The Utah Housing Market in 2023

Utilizing knowledge sourced from Redfin
, we analyzed the Utah housing market and the housing markets of the state’s 20 largest cities, throughout a spread of necessary housing metrics, together with: Median sale value, the variety of month-to-month house gross sales, the variety of new listings per 30 days, out there stock, the months of provide of houses, the median variety of days on market a house on the market spends, the gross sales to listing value ratio, and the share of energetic listings with value drops in a given month.

Based on the newest knowledge, as of March 2023, the median sale value for a house in Utah total is $525,900. That’s down by 5.8% from the earlier yr, when the median sale value was $558,200 in March 2022. Contemplating how scorching housing markets have been by way of the primary half of 2022, the year-over-year decline from 2022 to 2023 isn’t too unhealthy in comparison with many different states. Nevertheless, for the three earlier year-over-year durations — March 2019 to 2020, March 2020 to 2021, and March 2021 to 2022 — the change in Utah’s median sale value displayed double-digit progress: 10.7%, 27.7%, and 23.7%, respectively.

Then again, within the pre-pandemic years, progress in Utah house costs was extra modest. From March 2017 to March 2018, the median sale value grew by 8.7%, from $280,300 to $304,600; and from March 2018 to March 2019, Utah’s median sale value grew by 4.8%, from $304,600 to $319,200. Thus, the pandemic-induced excessive demand in homebuying throughout 2021 and the primary half of 2022 actually pressed the gasoline pedal on house value will increase.

The moderation in Utah’s housing market exercise could be seen in a few of the different housing metrics we compiled and analyzed. As an example, out there for-sale stock has modified dramatically yr to yr from 2017 to 2023. From March 2020 to March 2021, regardless of (or, due to) the influence of the pandemic, Utah’s statewide out there stock fell by greater than half (-51.7%): From 6,749 out there houses, down to three,258 houses on the market. Within the subsequent year-over-year interval, March 2021 to March 2022, stock once more declined, however solely barely, by 5.5%.

Nevertheless, from March 2022 to March 2023, housing stock in Utah shot again up, by 86.8%: From 3,079 out there houses on the market, as much as 5,752 houses. Regardless of this dramatic year-over-year progress in housing stock, the variety of out there houses on the market in March 2023 is definitely down considerably from a notable excessive of 8,215 houses on the market in September 2022 — the latter determine being the biggest inventory of housing stock since September 2015, when Utah had 8,289 out there houses on the market.

Under you’ll discover a desk that particulars the important thing housing metrics we used for the statewide Utah housing market total:

Utah Housing Market 2023: High 20 Largest Cities

Based mostly on inhabitants, we compiled housing knowledge on the 20 largest cities within the state of Utah. The most important metropolis is the state capital, Salt Lake Metropolis. To a considerable diploma, the housing markets of those 20 cities intently observe the developments for the statewide Utah housing market total. Though, there are after all exceptions.

Of Utah’s 20 largest cities, Draper posted the best median sale value in March 2023, at $679,200. That determine is down a substantial quantity since final yr: From a median sale value of $820,000 in March 2022, Draper house costs plunged by 17.2% in only one yr to $679,200. Certainly, Draper skilled the largest drop in median sale value year-over-year behind solely the town of Lehi, which skilled a lower of 19%, from $566,500 in March 2022, all the way down to $458,995 in March 2023. The truth is, 18 out of Utah’s 20 largest cities skilled year-over-year declines of their median sale costs from March 2022 to 2023.

The 2 exceptions have been Herriman and Saratoga Springs, the place house costs rose by 2% and 4.6% respectively. In any other case, the one-year interval from March 2022 to March 2023 noticed across-the-board drops in house costs in Utah’s primary housing markets.

Try the desk beneath for particulars on these 20 cities and their median sale costs:

The cities of Lehi, Draper, and Sandy all ranked among the many prime 5 cities which have skilled the best one-year decline in median sale value. These three cities, not coincidentally, additionally ranked among the many prime 5 cities the place the sale-to-list value ratio — the imply ratio of every house’s sale value divided by their listing value overlaying all houses — has additionally declined dramatically. When houses promote for above their listing value, they’ve a sale-to-list ratio of over 100%, and the upper the sale-to-list ratio, then it’s implied that demand is powerful, and costs are being pushed up. Nevertheless, having a sale-to-list ratio of lower than 100% signifies that the ultimate sale value was decrease than the unique listed value and will mirror a slowing in homebuying exercise and decrease demand.

For instance, in Lehi, the sale-to-list value ratio in March 2022 was 103.2%, so houses have been promoting for greater than they have been initially listed. By March 2023, Lehi’s sale-to-list ratio had decreased by 6.6%, all the way down to 96.4%, which means that the common house in Lehi is promoting for lower than its authentic itemizing value. Under is a desk detailing the biggest 20 cities in Utah and their sale-to-list ratio metrics:

Utah’s Homes Are Spending Extra Time on the Market

One other helpful metric for gauging the extent of exercise in a sure housing market is the median variety of days a house on the market spends available on the market earlier than being purchased up. A small variety of days on market would mirror excessive ranges of exercise, excessive demand, and homebuying. A lot of days on market, alternatively, would counsel a slowdown in homebuying as houses on the market at the moment are sitting available on the market longer as a result of there may be much less demand.

Statewide, Utah’s median days on market is 46 days, as of March 2023. That’s a couple of month and a half. A yr in the past, nonetheless, the Utah housing market had a median days on market of simply 9 days. Which means there was a 411.1% year-over-year enhance for this metric, or it elevated greater than five-fold in a single yr. And that’s on the state degree; lots of Utah’s largest cities displayed even larger year-over-year elevated:

With all 20 of Utah’s largest cities witnessing their houses on the market sitting available on the market for considerably longer than final yr, it shouldn’t come as a shock that out there stock can be up year-over-year in these cities. As already talked about, statewide, Utah’s out there stock elevated by 86.8% from March 2022 to March 2023. Under the Utah housing markets with the best year-over-year enhance in housing stock:

  1. St. George: 378.3%
  2. Logan: 82.1%
  3. Eagle Mountain: 58.5%
  4. Provo: 52.6%
  5. Layton: 37.7%

A associated metric to stock is month of provide: The variety of months it will take provide to be purchased up if no new houses got here available on the market. Contemplating out there stock in Logan is up by greater than 80% year-over-year, it is smart that its months of provide has elevated by 187.5%: From simply 0.8 months in March 2022 to 2.3 months in March 2023. However St. George, which witnessed an virtually four-fold enhance in its housing stock, skilled a year-over-year enhance in months of provide of 280%: From 2 months in March 2022 to 7.6 months in March 2023. The state of Utah total skilled a comparable enhance, with its months of provide rising by 150%, from 0.8 months to 2 months.

The Backside Line on the Utah Housing Marketplace for 2023

Taking collectively all the assorted housing metrics deployed in our evaluation, each on the state degree and metropolis degree, it looks like the Utah housing market is clearly slowing down by way of exercise and, with the financial horizon wanting stormy, there’s an excellent likelihood that the slowdown will persist.

To date, the Utah housing market has been going by way of a interval of correction after the heady days of 2021 to 2022, when homebuying reached a frenzied degree. Rising mortgage charges and rising prices of dwelling (non-housing) have impacted housing market exercise throughout the US these days, and in Utah particularly. From March 2013 by way of August 2020, the median sale value for a house in Utah by no means exceeded $400,000. Then, in September 2020, it crossed the road, reaching a median sale value of $421,700. Through the homebuying fever of the 2021-2022, Utah’s median sale value soared to a peak of $575,900 in Could 2022. It’s now all the way down to $525,900, which, nonetheless, is far larger than the pre-pandemic common. Subsequently, an outright collapse within the Utah housing market appears unlikely in 2023. However a continued slowing of exercise and weak-to-moderate demand, if not worse, appears possible.

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